Apple should copy from Samsung
Apple’s IBM Moment’
The Innovation from Samsung that needs to be copied
Apple fans are quiet enthusiastic in their (sometimes blind) following of Apple. In this post I suggest the mantle is passing and Apple has its task cut out.
A historical analogy may be IBM in early days of computing which provided integrated hardware and software at robustness and quality that set the gold standard. You did not get fired for buying IBM. However with time the quality gap narrowed, competitors innovated a lot more and faster and the IBM premium faded….Microsoft was one such with a more open approach. Since many other were enhancing the hardware and the extensible Operating system and software it set a new standard. The Mac continued in the tradition of controlled systems. It took to USB late and Apple has been quiet circumspect in adopting new technologies like NFC preferring to be a laggard.
This has had advantages as too open a system leads to variations and some lack of robustness and varying user experience (the infamous Windows blue screen of death) . This has hurt Android. Google now is trying to reduce the variation (Android One) and Apple is opening up. For the first time iphone and ipad users can select third party keyboards and customize aspects of the UI that were given
Apple now carries the cachet IBM used to carry. Its adoption of oversized phones (phablets) has given legitimacy to that Samsung upstart and NFC may also get a boost with Apple Pay. This is good for customers. Competition is always useful in particular . There are several Android features that Apple has borrowed ( Active Notification, Cloud backup & Sync) and improved ( Siri over OK Google) . However competition does not stay still. OK Google (Google Now) is vastly better then Siri for Asian users. The voice recognition is superb and the action very close to intent. Siri falls flat a lot . It has to discover the rest of the World. Apples future growth depends on that.
I am an investor in Apple and love the fact it commands huge margin and has such growth.(Apple fans please keep buying) .
I wish to encourage Apple to shamelessly copy two features from Samsung Note lineup. I use Note 2 smart phone and Note Tab 10.1 2014 edition and they are way ahead of ipad. And it’s the software and productivity boost that makes it so. .Apple still provides a crisper and smoother experience but these phones are close very close. Difficult to justify Apple premium after you experience the productivity boost. I admit that my usage may not be typical. I am a post PC user. I spend more time with these devices. I want to do more than just consume. I believe this is a large enough segment to matter and will become larger. The phablet emerged to meet needs of users who do much more than just talk and listen to music and share photo so more and more users will want to create. For example I prefer to draw my mind-maps on the tablet
.Mindjet on the touch tablet is far easier and fun compared to desktop.
S pen A digitizer masquerading as stylus
Annotated page from FT app
The S pen is not a stylus in the way Steve Jobs thought about it. Its actually a digitizer and pretty good. The digitizer is so good Adobe AutoCad360 shines. Photo artists can do very precise work.The Keyboard can support handwriting input in any application. It takes your input and converts to text. However I am not a big fan of that as a bit slow still but improving and will be natural within 2 years.
I have back and forth with web page designers. Incredibly great to take out the S pen and annotate the web page with exactly the changes needed. Very quick and precise. You can mark up anything and this does not depend on support from the third party application. See an annotation of an article from the FT App. ( I trust their lawyers will not come after me for copyright …) .
The native S Note application has slick features . You can sketch diagrams, write mathematical equations and have them converted /cleaned up. Does a very good job.
Math Formulae from handwriting
I have stopped using paper and takes notes of meeting and things I am studying . Papyrus with S note is a full replacement of paper notebook plus you can embed graphics and screen shots as well. As a bonus your notes and notebooks are backed up on the cloud.
Multi Window
Another feature is multi window support . This needs genuine multitasking OS. IoS has a pseudo multi tasking feature and is being reworked. On a desk top I can open a Powerpoint and review it slide by slide adding comments on a email reply window on the side. This is just not possible on a Tablet. However Samsung Note Tab 10.1 supports this and its very productive. A favorite activity I have is collecting interesting usage of connected devices (IoT) and then updating the IoT forum that TiE runs.
Curating Web content
I have dedicated modes where Evernote and browser open up in side by side mode so I can collect items as I browse and then I can curate and post to the IoT community . Another nifty feature pen window lets you open a application like a calculator in a small window. Can use it to do quick checks.
Checking Maths with a pop up
Copy contact info is a common one for me.
Aside this is the major failure of Windows 8. Trying to impose the modal window of phones on a desktop.
Multi Window is coming to Android and should make it to iPhone.
A/B Testing at scale
I really appreciate that Samsung has stuck to the Note and iterated with different formats and different features in the software. The S pen applications have benefited from large scale A/B testing across multiple devices and feature set. This again is different from the button down process previously used at Apple . There was little end user input and more “My Way or the Highway” of Steve Jobs…That too is changing .
About time…The cycle of innovation and consumer good is well served …
Agility Flexibility For Software Product
Agility and Flexibility
[ There is an interesting discussion in ProductNation on Customizable Product : An oxymoron which triggered me to write this post]
I find many people use these words interchangeably. However the distinction is important and source of value. Agility can be engineered with proven techniques and best practices. With advancement in software engineering there is convergence on the tools and techniques to achieve agility and it may no longer be a source of differentiation but a necessary feature. Flexibility on the other hand requires deep insight into diverse needs and types of usage and done imaginatively can provide great value to users and be a source of competitive advantage.
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The online Merriam-Webster dictionary offers the following definitions: Flexible: characterized by a ready capability to adapt to new, different, or changing requirements. Agile: marked by ready ability to move with quick easy grace.
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In Software product context it may be more appropriate to define agility as the ability to change things quickly and Flexibility as the ability to achieve a (higher) goal by different means. So ability to value Inventory by different methods like FIFO or LIFO or Standard cost is flexibility. The ability to change commission rate or sales tax rate quickly (generally by changing a parameter in a table of a file and avoiding need to make code changes) is agility.
There is a range or scale ( 1 ..10) of agility. Making changes in code esp 3rd generation languages like Java, C# is the baseline. Using a scripting language like Javascript , Python may be less demanding then compiled language but it is still not as agile as most users expect. Most users would rate it simpler to update a parameter in a file or a simple user interface like a Excel type spreadsheet as simpler and faster. Changing logic by using a If-Then type of rule base is in-between. Simpler then coding but more complex then table updates.
You should have picked up some inter-related themes here. Complexity or need for skill in making changes to a scripting or Rule engine . Need for easy to use interface to make the changes. Need for relatively easy and error free method of making changes. If you need to update ten parameters in ten different places or change 17 rules in a If-Then rule base it may not be as simple and is less agile .
Most modern Software products are fairly agile with scripting, table based parameters and rule driven execution engine. The use of style sheets in generating personalized User interface, specialized components like Workflow or process management engines etc also provide agility.
Flexibility is a different beast. Layered architectures and specialized components for workflow, rule execution and User experience can make it easier to accommodate different ways to do the same things. They make it easier to make the necessary changes but they do not provide flexibility as such. End users do not value the potential flexibility of architecture but the delivered functionality. This is a major problem. Even Analysts from Gartner , Forrester do not have a good way to measure flexibility and use proxy measures like number of installations or types of users ( Life Insurers and Health Insurers or Make to order or Make to Stock business).
Flexibility is derived from matching the application model to the business model and then generalizing the model. I will illustrate with a concrete example. Most business applications have the concept of person acting as a user ( operator) or manager authorizing a transaction. So a clerk may enter a sales refund transaction and a supervisor may need to log in to authorize this refund. The simplest ( and not so flexibly) way to implement this is to define the user as clerk or supervisor. A more sophisticated model would be to introduce the concept of role. A user may play the role of clerk in a certain transaction and a supervisor in another. Certain roles can authorize certain types of transactions with certain financial limits. So user BBB can approve sales refund up to 100,000 INR as a supervisor. However BBB as manager of a section can initiate a request for additional budget for his section. In this BBB is acting as a clerk and DDD the General Manager who approves the budget extension request is acting as a supervisor. This model is inherently more flexible. It is also not easy to retrofit this feature by making changes to parameters or If-Then rules. If the Application does not model the concept of Role all the agility in the product is of little use. Greater flexibility can be produced by generalizing the concept of user to software programs. So in certain high volume business a “power user” can run a program which can automatically approve a class of transaction under certain set of control parameters. This “virtual user” is recorded as the approver on the transaction. The application keeps a trail of actual control parameters and power user who ran this “batch”.
Flexibility comes from a good understanding into user’s context and insight into their underlying or strategic intent. Business and users will vary the tactic used to meet their intent based on context. Consider a simplistic example to illustrate. I need to urgently communicate some news to a business partner. I try calling his cell but to no use. I would send a SMS ( India) but if a US contact ( who are not as yet fans of SMS or Text) leave a voice message on his phone or send a email. A Smartphone that allows me to type a message and send as SMS or email is more flexible then one where I have to separately write the email or the SMS.
Frequently Software designers and Architects generalize all types of changes as extensions. They are not interested in understanding intent and context of usage and want a horizontal generic solution to all changes. This leads to overly abstract design with extension mechanisms to change logic, screens and database and reports. In essence to develop a 4th generation programming environment or Rapid Application Development Environment (RAD) . These help by making programming easier and faster but are no substitute for understanding user’s context and designing the application architecture to match and exploit them.
Users relate to a product which speaks their language and seems to understand them. They also get excited and impressed when they see new ways of doing their business and improving their revenue, reducing cost and improving customer satisfaction. Most managers want to make changes incrementally. So ability to “pilot” changes to a smaller segment of users, customers and products while continuing in traditional way with the larger base is of great value. That is ultimate flexibility.
Flexibility is not a mélange of features haphazardly put together. I have seen many service companies developing “Flexible Product” by adding every feature they can see in other offerings. Invariably this leads to a mythical creature which does not work. If you put a Formula 1 Race engine in a Range Rover chassis with a Nano steering and Maruti wheels you have a car which does not drive!! A Formula 1 car is intended for maximum speed and acceleration that is safe while a goods carrying vehicle is intended for maximum load carrying with optimum cost of fuel usage .
Delivering Flexibility requires heavy lifting in developing a good understanding of user’s domain, their intent and context. It adds value by simplifying the feature set and matching users intent and context.. If we can use our imagination and understanding of technology trends and capability to provide more then users have visualized we can lead them to newer ways. Leadership is an important way to differentiate your product. Invest in doing this and reap benefits.
The Caveman’s Curse: Loosing weight is difficult
The Economist recently covered obesity and the difficulty of losing weight under the arresting headline Cavemans Curse.
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21568061-why-it-easy-get-fat-and-hard-slim-down-cavemans-curse
This reminded me to finally pen down my journey in losing 20+ Kg over 18 months. Many friends and esp. Golf buddies have been asking me the “Secret” and here is the recipe…
Please keep the following in mind:
1. Your Mileage may vary. Our bodies react differently to same stimulus.
2. Measure and adjust. The most powerful tool is (almost) daily measurement. Course correction will come easy. ( My Golf buddies can see the engineer in me. Not for nothing do I need to pace the length of my putt. Not a feel golfer..)
3. First 2 weeks is crucial. The caveman’s body fights any starvation and craves food. We end up overeating after a strenuous workout. Controlling this in the first 2 weeks is crucial. After that the body goes into a different mode and it becomes a lot easier.
4. Focus on the meal not the ingredients. Too many of the diets focus on ingredients. This is a mistake in my experience. It is the whole meal and lifestyle that matters. So I do eat junk food and cheese and sweets but seem to be doing well despite that..
5. Beware Mis-information. Much of the nutrition information/ advice is based on occidental body types and lifestyles. They do not apply to others. Much of medical literature is based on work sponsored by a drug company. It is unlikely they will find evidence to support historical food habits. For example residents of coastal belts have historically taken a local grown oil ( coconut?) and done well . Similarly on a historical basis rice eating Chinese and Vietnamese or (East) India belt have had much less obesity then the wheat eating North. What is important is quantity as our lifestyle changes. Our overall calorie intake has to come down.
6. Calorie intake over exercise. About 70% of weight reduction is due to calorie intake. Exercise has a much lower contribution. Altered lifestyle (Calorie intake) is a must to sustain a lower weight.
It’s not linear: I started about 18 months back on a sustained plan to reduce from a BMI near 30 to less then 24. This meant loosing 20 Kg. I measured myself every day .I used Wii Fit Body test feature (http://wiifit.com/body-test/ ) which also shows a graph so can see trend. My weight was a like the stock market ( Nifty or S&P500) Goes up and down by around 1Kg a day at most and 0.25 Kg most of the time. A good night out with friends invariably means at least 1Kg extra to my weight. My weight also fluctuates about 0.5 Kg on its own during the day so measuring at a similar point in time is a good idea. For me that was before breakfast. Aside the volatility of body weight is similar to stock price. Exceeds the mean gain/loss …
Take breaks in between: I lost around 2.5 Kg /Month during the extreme phase. I would lose up to 1.5Kg in a week and up to 1Kg in a day. My workout was mainly fat burn walk at 6-6.5 Km/Hour speed on an incline between 10-12 degree. I would lose 300-700 Calories in 30-60 minutes. I did not run and avoided stressing my knee. However I rarely did workout on successive days and did allow some gaps and some gain in weight. So jig jag like the stock market but with bearish trend so over longer period’s weight was definitely going down. This is important as if I overdid the exercise I would fall sick pretty quickly. So you have to hear your body and ease up once in a while…
Reducing calorie intake is crucial: I learnt this tip in my sojourn in UK. I was gaining weight and it was Ian Morris who suggested “Do as the Brits” and replace dinner with a soup. Works like a charm. Alternate days I replaced full dinner with a light meal or a soup. You need to take a lot of fluids to make your body not crave for food and overeat the next day. Before I started I used to eat 2 masala dosa for lunch. Halfway thru 1 was enough and now even one is a bit too much. Similarly I reduced my breakfast from 2 pair of bread to one and cut out coffee. It is important to reduce calorie intake even more as you lose weight. Eating dinner 2 -3 hours before sleeping at night helps. Stretching the meal over a much longer time period helps. Because of workout and reduced intake of calories the body craves food. When we start eating the chemical signal of fullness comes very slowly and we will overeat. I used to stretch the meal out by reading along with and sipping around 1.5-2L of water while eating. This stops overeating.
The Calorie Journey: A rough summary of my journey:
Baseline:A round 2,500 calories a day and 2 round of Golf ( 10Km sedentary walk) in a week. So 17,000 Calorie per week. Gaining weight by ½ a Kg per month.
First 2 weeks : Reduce 300 calorie every alternate day ie reduced to 16,200-300 a week. This had a marginal effect on weight. I stopped gaining weight.
Next 2 Months: Start workout 3-4 days a week. Roughly 1,500-2000 calorie burn/week. So down to under 15,000 calorie per week ( -12%) . Lose around 1.5 Kg/month
Next 3 months: Reduce breakfast by 150 calories every day as well as 300 calorie in dinner on alternate days. So down to 15,200 /Week intake . Workout 4 days a week. So net at 14,000/Week. Reduced weight by 2 kg per month.
Next 2 months. Stopped extra workout and reduced golf as on Christmas / new year holidays. However measured weight every day and kept strict control on intake. Managed to stay flat over 2 months. This was a big relief as the key is lifestyle modification to maintain weight without extra workout.
Next 6 months: Reduce Lunch intake by 100-200 calorie at least 4 days a week. Continue workout 4 times a week. Lose by 1.5 Kg/Month.
Next 4 Months: Reduce workout intensity and frequency. Lose 1 Kg / Month.
Stabilized mode: Roughly 1,900-2,000 calorie / Day ( -20% from baseline) . Able to maintain weight even without any workout. And 20kg less then baseline. BMI around 24.
Diet changes may not be important: I did not make any changes to the composition of what I eat. So I did take cheese ( with bread) and also sweets( jalebi!!). I did completely cut out milk as I can no longer digest milk. I simply reduced the quantity of everything I eat. So 2 Jalebi instead of 6, One egg instead of 2, 2 roti instead of 4…I also do frequently take (junk food..) ie Namkeen ( Peanuts, chips, …) . These are surprisingly rich in calorie and I had to really watch the straying hand for one more bite …
The God Particle and the death of Atomic Theory
The discovery of the Higs Boson or the (misnamed) God particle as the culmination of 40 year search has been well covered in the general press. It completes the latest model of matter and lends a sense of closure.
The Nobel Laureate and great teacher Richard Feynman held the Atomic Theory as the “ultimate learning “of Science.
“If, in some cataclysm, all of scientific knowledge were to be destroyed, and only one sentence passed on to the next generation of creatures, what statement would contain the most information in the fewest words? I believe it is the atomic hypothesis that
All things are made of atoms-little particles that that move around in perpetual motion, attracting each other when they are a little distance apart, but repelling upon being squeezed into one another.
In that one sentence, you will see, there is an enormous amount of information about the world, if just a little imagination and thinking are applied.”
We argue that the atomic theory of matter is dead. There are already three layers of the ultimate indivisible particles to explain matter
- chemical atoms and molecules
- the subatomic electrons and protons
- the nuclear quarks and leptons and bosons.
We explore the utility of these models and an alternate way of looking at models of matter covering infinite recursion, singularity and hetrarchy vedic philosophy and movie like the Matrix reloaded.
Strategy as White Water Rafting
Introduction
Developing a long-term strategy in today’s business environment is very challenging. Especially in the software industry, the environment is changing so rapidly that strategies might become obsolete soon. The only strategy that makes sense is to keep revising your approach in step with the changes happening around you. An external focus is very crucial for this. Business today is more like a war and it is very important to understand what the old way of working was and what the new paradigm is.
Strategic assumptions, management structures, information systems, and training programs geared to a competitive battlefield of the old days no longer hold good. The rules of engagement have changed and Strategic mind-sets also need to change. Today’s business environment is characterized by some common elements[1].
Friction
A force that resists action! A Lot of the things that apparently seems easy to do suddenly become difficult to do and a lot of difficult things appear impossible do to. For example, finding out touch points, events and sale opportunities for a CRM model looks easy but the effort does not move because of inability to decide and take action. Another symptom of friction is the ‘80% complete’ syndrome. Many projects start off ( Namma Metro Construction in Bangalore) ) but they never seemed to get completed or closed after that. Another example could be the writer’s cramp while writing a Whitepaper. Friction is the inability to get started on an initiative or the inability to close something that has been started. The cause may be mental, as in indecision over a course of action or it could be self-induced such as a lack of clearly defined objectives and unclear plans or it could be physical as in lack of resources to get started. Whatever form it takes, friction definitely has a psychological as well as a physical impact.
Uncertainty
Business is always conducted in a ‘fog of war’ – one does not know what the competitor is doing, one does not know which technology option will succeed, one does not know who is helping as a partner and who is exploiting the situation. Actions in business are based on incomplete, inaccurate or even contradictory information. Gartner may predict certain events; Forrester may contradict them. You may have some inside information that throws a different light on the story. What is the truth and what is not is not clear. But decisions still have to be made and made fast. This involves estimation and acceptance of risk. Higher the risk higher the gain or loss and hence an ability to take prudent risks becomes important.
Fluidity
Business environment does not remain stable at all times. Each episode is a temporary result of a unique combination of circumstances requiring an original solution. No episode can be viewed in isolation. Each episode is shaped by previous ones and shapes future events. Success depends on the ability to adapt to change. Mergers and Acquisitions change a lot of the global scenario. New services, new products and new channels appear and we need to adapt fast to such changes. We need to see emerging patterns (e.g. 24/7, self service) and prepare to adapt.
Disorder
Uncertainty, Fluidity and Friction usually are a recipe for disorder. Under pressure situations instructions would be unclear and misunderstandings would happen, communication will fail and mistakes would be commonplace. This is evident in any of our sales closing situations. Wrong prices, inconsistent numbers and information seem to get passed to the customer creating a lot of confusion. An inability to work in teams is displayed when different people give different messages.
White water rafting is a sport that exemplifies the current business scenario and how the rafters have to navigate at extreme speeds without losing control and negotiate rapids and falls without losing balance. White water rafters have to continuously deal with friction (Is the fall safe?), uncertainty (which course to take for a safe landing?), fluidity (Each rapid is unique requiring unique maneuvering skills) and disorder (Each rafter is trying his own stunts).
The White water rafter[2]
Managing in the old economy was like piloting an ocean liner at sea, while managing in the new economy is surely like negotiating the white water rapids of a narrow river in an inflatable raft. Technology is driving the new economy at an enormous rate of knots and producing subsequent turmoil in the business world.
| Business Environment | Whitewater Rafting Analogy |
| Time | Moving downstream on the river is the passage of time. |
| Change in Technology | The rate of the river’s flow is the rate of change of technology. When the water is flowing smoothly in the river, rafting is easy. Technology in the days of COBOL was like rafting in a smooth river without much turbulence. The river flowed at a constant speed and frequent changes in course and direction were not required. |
| Disruptive Change | Waterfalls in the river’s journey are those sudden changes in the business environment that are disruptive such as the appearance of the Internet. Rafters who do not gear up to flowing down the waterfall inevitably flounder. Those rafters that successfully navigate through the waterfall continue on the onward journey. Sometimes a lot of hype is created for certain waterfalls as being disruptive. But when the rafters reach the place, they may not find anything more than a small rapid. Technologies such as WAP have appeared on the scene but have not created much impact. Currently there is a lot of hype on the opportunities that the social marketing may uncover. Only when the rafters reach the point, we will know. But it does help to be prepared. |
| New Technology | Rapids in the river are like new technology. The rafters need to maneuver through them and sail across. Face book for the enterprise, Mobility, etc are examples of technology that businesses may need to adopt. |
| Competing Technologies | Forks in the river signify an option to choose. Rafters may need to decide which course to take. Whether to take the Adobe Flash route or the HTML5 route is a choice to make. You may wait and see where other rafters are going or you may analyze and make a decision. It may be possible that certain branches in the river meet up later. |
| Business Opportunities | The rocks with vegetation or the forests alongside the river are the business opportunities. Rafters may need to stop, check for vegetation or move on to new opportunities. Guerilla teams may go into the dense vegetation and find out if there are business opportunities. |
Futuristic Management Pedagogy
The marvel of Digitization. While browsing the web I stumbled upon the article I co authored a long long time back while at IIM A in Vikalpa. We did a Delhpi forecasting about future methods of education and was intended to be an input to the commitee on future directions.
Well well the time has come and it is intresting to read back what was expected. Some stuff we did get right. Knowledge will be available to the learner regardless of background or discipline. Modularization of Knowledge and multiple entry points…
The pleothra of free courseware on so many techniques / topics has actaully come to pass
But the perils of forecasting , You will be wrong almost all the time on some detail!!!
Analytics in the large Solvency II
Solvency II is a European Union Insurance specific regulation similar to BASEL III for Banks. It is also a quantum jump in the art and science of macro economic forecasting and imposes a level of precision with complexity that will be a challenge for all. While delayed in implantation the ongoing economic crisis and the debate over more austerity or more government funded stimulus highlights the conflicting needs of precision ( 99.5% certainty level) and robustness ( under dramatic different scenarios) .
I authored a Point of View for a client some time back. Read the original for the full implications. The paper is a deep dive. You are forewarned….
Insurance Policy Adminstration a new Architecture thru Product Server component
I co-authored a thought leadership article some time back on a new way to architect Insurance Policy administration system. This approach fits in well with the new BPM and rules based approach and is especially important for multi brand and multi line Insurers.
Read the original for the full details.
Politics may trump Economics
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” –George Santayana
The German philosopher Hegel in his dialectic held three stages of development of ideas: a thesis, giving rise to its reaction, an antithesis, which contradicts or negates the thesis, and the tension between the two being resolved by means of a synthesis.
Post World War II has seen a great expansion of Anglo Saxon capitalism (Wall Street banking) and Global trade. The antithesis is emerging and consolidating. We are heading for a turbulent ride and some parallels from history may be timely…( Credits to Business Week Lessons from the Credit-Anstalt Collapse )
In May 1931, a Viennese bank named Credit-Anstalt failed. Founded by the famous Rothschild banking family in 1855, Credit-Anstalt was one of the most important financial institutions of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and its failure came as a shock because it was considered impregnable. The bank not only made loans; it acquired ownership stakes in all kinds of companies throughout the sprawling empire, from sugar producers to the new automobile makers. Its headquarters city, Vienna, was a place of wealth and splendor, famous for its opera, balls, chocolate, psychoanalysis, and the extravagant architecture of the Ringstrasse.
Harold James, a British historian at Princeton University, described what happened next in his 2001 book The End of Globalization: Lessons from the Great Depression. “The Viennese panic brought down banks in Amsterdam and Warsaw. In June and July the scare spread to Germany, and from there immediately to Latvia, Turkey, and Egypt (and within a few months to England and the U.S.).” Austria got an undersized loan from the Bank for International Settlements and some help from the British branch of the Rothschild family. But French politicians rejected an international rescue without political concessions from Germany that weren’t forthcoming.
Thus the failure of Credit-Anstalt accelerated the financial panic that turned a recession into a global depression. Economic distress in Austria contributed to the outbreak of violent conflict between socialists and fascists in 1934. Jews became scapegoats. In 1938, Nazi Germany occupied Austria, and Adolf Hitler was received by adoring crowds in Vienna. Albeit indirectly, the failure of Credit-Anstalt helped clear the path for some of the darkest events of the 20th century.
The fall of Credit-Anstalt—and the dominoes it helped topple across Continental Europe and the confidence it shredded as far away as the U.S.—wasn’t just the failure of a bank: It was a failure of civilization.
We should see the emergence of politics as a driver for change trumping technology and trade. That is the antithesis…where bible thumping fundamentalist and bearded clerics run things…..The failure of Doha round, the Arab Spring…
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