Strategy as White Water Rafting

Introduction

Developing a long-term strategy in today’s business environment is very challenging. Especially in the software industry, the environment is changing so rapidly that strategies might become obsolete soon. The only strategy that makes sense is to keep revising your approach in step with the changes happening around you. An external focus is very crucial for this. Business today is more like a war and it is very important to understand what the old way of working was and what the new paradigm is.

Strategic assumptions, management structures, information systems, and training programs geared to a competitive battlefield of the old days no longer hold good. The rules of engagement have changed and Strategic mind-sets also need to change. Today’s business environment is characterized by some common elements[1].

Friction

A force that resists action! A Lot of the things that apparently seems easy to do suddenly become difficult to do and a lot of difficult things appear impossible do to. For example, finding out touch points, events and sale opportunities for a CRM model looks easy but the effort does not move because of inability to decide and take action. Another symptom of friction is the ‘80% complete’ syndrome. Many projects start off ( Namma Metro Construction in Bangalore)  ) but they never seemed to get completed or closed after that. Another example could be the writer’s cramp while writing a Whitepaper. Friction is the inability to get started on an initiative or the inability to close something that has been started. The cause may be mental, as in indecision over a course of action or it could be self-induced such as a lack of clearly defined objectives and unclear plans or it could be physical as in lack of resources to get started. Whatever form it takes, friction definitely has a psychological as well as a physical impact.

Uncertainty

Business is always conducted in a ‘fog of war’ – one does not know what the competitor is doing, one does not know which technology option will succeed, one does not know who is helping as a partner and who is exploiting the situation. Actions in business are based on incomplete, inaccurate or even contradictory information. Gartner may predict certain events; Forrester may contradict them. You may have some inside information that throws a different light on the story. What is the truth and what is not is not clear. But decisions still have to be made and made fast. This involves estimation and acceptance of risk. Higher the risk higher the gain or loss and hence an ability to take prudent risks becomes important.

Fluidity

Business environment does not remain stable at all times. Each episode is a temporary result of a unique combination of circumstances requiring an original solution. No episode can be viewed in isolation. Each episode is shaped by previous ones and shapes future events. Success depends on the ability to adapt to change. Mergers and Acquisitions change a lot of the global scenario. New services, new products and new channels appear and we need to adapt fast to such changes. We need to see emerging patterns (e.g. 24/7, self service) and prepare to adapt.

Disorder

Uncertainty, Fluidity and Friction usually are a recipe for disorder. Under pressure situations instructions would be unclear and misunderstandings would happen, communication will fail and mistakes would be commonplace. This is evident in any of our sales closing situations. Wrong prices, inconsistent numbers and information seem to get passed to the customer creating a lot of confusion. An inability to work in teams is displayed when different people give different messages.

White water rafting is a sport that exemplifies the current business scenario and how the rafters have to navigate at extreme speeds without losing control and negotiate rapids and falls without losing balance. White water rafters have to continuously deal with friction (Is the fall safe?), uncertainty (which course to take for a safe landing?), fluidity (Each rapid is unique requiring unique maneuvering skills) and disorder (Each rafter is trying his own stunts).

The White water rafter[2]

Managing in the old economy was like piloting an ocean liner at sea, while managing in the new economy is surely like negotiating the white water rapids of a narrow river in an inflatable raft. Technology is driving the new economy at an enormous rate of knots and producing subsequent turmoil in the business world.

Business Environment	Whitewater Rafting Analogy
Time	Moving downstream on the river is the passage of time.
Change in Technology	The rate of the river’s flow is the rate of change of technology. When the water is flowing smoothly in the river, rafting is easy. Technology in the days of COBOL was like rafting in a smooth river without much turbulence. The river flowed at a constant speed and frequent changes in course and direction were not required.
Disruptive Change	Waterfalls in the river’s journey are those sudden changes in the business environment that are disruptive such as the appearance of the Internet. Rafters who do not gear up to flowing down the waterfall inevitably flounder. Those rafters that successfully navigate through the waterfall continue on the onward journey. Sometimes a lot of hype is created for certain waterfalls as being disruptive. But when the rafters reach the place, they may not find anything more than a small rapid. Technologies such as WAP have appeared on the scene but have not created much impact. Currently there is a lot of hype on the opportunities that the social marketing may uncover. Only when the rafters reach the point, we will know. But it does help to be prepared.
New Technology	Rapids in the river are like new technology. The rafters need to maneuver through them and sail across. Face book for the enterprise, Mobility, etc are examples of technology that businesses may need to adopt.
Competing Technologies	Forks in the river signify an option to choose. Rafters may need to decide which course to take. Whether to take the Adobe Flash route or the HTML5 route is a choice to make. You may wait and see where other rafters are going or you may analyze and make a decision. It may be possible that certain branches in the river meet up later.
Business Opportunities	The rocks with vegetation or the forests alongside the river are the business opportunities. Rafters may need to stop, check for vegetation or move on to new opportunities. Guerilla teams may go into the dense vegetation and find out if there are business opportunities.